From an article on playfuls:
One research estimate indicate that "The Sony PlayStation 3 is expected to win the console war in the long term with an install base of around 75 million globally by 2010. The console is not expected to dominate as much as its predecessor, the PS2, due to late launch issues in the PAL region and the early lead of Microsofts Xbox 360."
"Boston-based research firm Yankee Group reported that the game-console war will have found a winner by 2011 and that is PlayStation 3. Xbox 360 will come second and Nintendo Wii third.
The respected market research firm predicted that by 2011, which means 5 years from now, PlayStation 3 will have more than 30 million units sold, Xbox 360 will closely follow with 27 million units and Nintendo will trail the other two giants with its Wii console, with only 11 million units."
Although I know little about Research Markets I do know the Yankee Group. They are heavily used by technology journalists and larger corporations. Their forecast should therefore be impartial as too much is riding on their reputation. Here's an article that further quotes their research.
I'm hoping to get a PS3 for my boys in early 2008...actually they'll be paying for it. I'll be paying for the peripherals like wirless Bluetooth headphones and a 1080p HDTV...
For movie lovers like myself, HDTV coupled with an HD DVD player like the PS3 makes a lot of sense. You get an HD player built into a game console which the kids can use at a cost lower than a standalone player. Conventional wisdom says to wait a year after the PS3's initial release. As was the case with the PS2, when it's first released the technology is too new and game developers are unfamiliar with it. It will take until the second generation of games before they come even close to exploiting the technology. This is especially true of the Cell processor.